2017 First Basemen Rankings
First base has historically been a deep position where you can really get a ton of offensive contribution. This season it's a little thinner than what you're probably used to seeing, but there is still plenty of big offensive numbers to be had here.
Let's start out with checking the current ADP numbers. We'll go 25 deep which should be enough to cover almost all mixed leagues. These will obviously be different across different league types, but here's a rough estimate:
I think the best way to approach these deeper positions is to take the tier-approach into your draft. Most of the time if you don't get the guy you want, there's going to be a guy available that will give you similar production. Here's roughly how I would tier the first baseman off at this point in the pre-season.
I almost broke Paul Goldschmidt off into his own top tier and put Anthony Rizzo alone in the second tier, and then slid the rest down, but decided to leave them together and just note heavily that Goldschmidt is a significantly better option than Rizzo. The fact that he can steal 20 bases really pushes him above and beyond Rizzo, even though Rizzo could outperform Goldy in the rest of the hitting categories. Goldschmidt is a guy that will go in the first round and if he's around late in the first round, that's someone you want to consider grabbing. Rizzo is a fine consolation prize if you want a top first baseman but address another position in the first round.
If you miss on the top two guys, I really think ensuring you get somebody from the top three tiers there is a good idea. There's some producers below that line, but it's just a lot more shaky.
From tier two, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion are my favorites. Miguel Cabrera will be 34 this season, and while he certainly put together a fantastic season at age 33, there were some small signs of regression. I would rather use the pick on Votto or Encarnacion who are pretty much just as safe but don't have as much down side. Freddie Freeman had an awesome season in 2016 but was helped by an outrageous .370 BABIP. There's some regression coming in that batting average.
There's a pretty decent sized step down from tier 2 to 3. Jose Abreu's home run total dropped from 30 to 25 last year (in 5 more games played), after dropping from 36 to 30 from his rookie year to 2015. The batting average is still a plus, but his numbers aren't spectacular. Wil Myers is going to continue to be hurt by that massive ballpark and the lack of bats surrounding him in the Padres lineup; he just doesn't have a ton of upside. My favorite player in this tier is Hanley Ramirez who had a big time second half last year (22 homers and a .593 slugging percentage in the season's final 66 games) after making some adjustments. There should be RBI opportunity aplenty hitting in the heart of that Red Sox order.
After that you drop off to a lot of all-or-nothing guys. Chris Davis saw his line drive percentage drop 5% last year, he's almost a lock for 30+ homers, but he's going to crush your batting average. And are you really excited about having Albert Pujols, Eric Hosmer, or Carlos Santana on your team? I'm not.
If you're looking for a first baseman late, the guys with the most upside in my eyes are Brandon Belt, Tommy Joseph, Greg Bird, and Chris Carter. All of those guys have 30+ homer potential and play in pretty friendly hitting environments.
All of that said, here's how I rank the first basemen:
Let's start out with checking the current ADP numbers. We'll go 25 deep which should be enough to cover almost all mixed leagues. These will obviously be different across different league types, but here's a rough estimate:
I think the best way to approach these deeper positions is to take the tier-approach into your draft. Most of the time if you don't get the guy you want, there's going to be a guy available that will give you similar production. Here's roughly how I would tier the first baseman off at this point in the pre-season.
I almost broke Paul Goldschmidt off into his own top tier and put Anthony Rizzo alone in the second tier, and then slid the rest down, but decided to leave them together and just note heavily that Goldschmidt is a significantly better option than Rizzo. The fact that he can steal 20 bases really pushes him above and beyond Rizzo, even though Rizzo could outperform Goldy in the rest of the hitting categories. Goldschmidt is a guy that will go in the first round and if he's around late in the first round, that's someone you want to consider grabbing. Rizzo is a fine consolation prize if you want a top first baseman but address another position in the first round.
If you miss on the top two guys, I really think ensuring you get somebody from the top three tiers there is a good idea. There's some producers below that line, but it's just a lot more shaky.
From tier two, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion are my favorites. Miguel Cabrera will be 34 this season, and while he certainly put together a fantastic season at age 33, there were some small signs of regression. I would rather use the pick on Votto or Encarnacion who are pretty much just as safe but don't have as much down side. Freddie Freeman had an awesome season in 2016 but was helped by an outrageous .370 BABIP. There's some regression coming in that batting average.
There's a pretty decent sized step down from tier 2 to 3. Jose Abreu's home run total dropped from 30 to 25 last year (in 5 more games played), after dropping from 36 to 30 from his rookie year to 2015. The batting average is still a plus, but his numbers aren't spectacular. Wil Myers is going to continue to be hurt by that massive ballpark and the lack of bats surrounding him in the Padres lineup; he just doesn't have a ton of upside. My favorite player in this tier is Hanley Ramirez who had a big time second half last year (22 homers and a .593 slugging percentage in the season's final 66 games) after making some adjustments. There should be RBI opportunity aplenty hitting in the heart of that Red Sox order.
After that you drop off to a lot of all-or-nothing guys. Chris Davis saw his line drive percentage drop 5% last year, he's almost a lock for 30+ homers, but he's going to crush your batting average. And are you really excited about having Albert Pujols, Eric Hosmer, or Carlos Santana on your team? I'm not.
If you're looking for a first baseman late, the guys with the most upside in my eyes are Brandon Belt, Tommy Joseph, Greg Bird, and Chris Carter. All of those guys have 30+ homer potential and play in pretty friendly hitting environments.
All of that said, here's how I rank the first basemen:
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