2017 Third Basemen Rankings
Lots of third basemen are going to be drafted this fantasy season. The position is decently deep and the hot corner is typically a position that most teams fill with offensive producers. Let's take an early look at the current ADP for third basemen in fantasy baseball this year.
It's a top-heavy position with 4 guys that are going to go in the first round or early second round this year. The top tier is pretty evident, but here's how I break down the position into tiers at this time:
Bryant: 104 R, 33 HR, 109 RBI, 12 SB, .274/.372/.512
Arenado: 85 R, 38 HR, 110 RBI, 2 SB, .291/.343/.567
Machado: 91 R, 32 HR, 86 RBI, 7 SB, .289/.349/.511
Donaldson: 98 R, 34 HR, 105 RBI, 6 SB, .276/.372/.525
Bryant has the highest upside, and Arenado is extremely safe for those numbers playing in Coors field, which is probably why that's the 1-2 in most drafts, but there's really not a lot of risk with any of these guys. You can't go wrong, and if one of is available into the second round they're going to be a good guy to nab to be the main cog in your offense.
Tier two: Kyle Seager, Matt Carpenter, Todd Frazier
After the top four are off the board, it seems like they'll be a pretty substantial amount of time before the next third baseman is drafted. There are a lot of similar options once we get to this point, so drafting a 3B from here is really going to be about what is available as a whole in your draft at the time.
Seager - This guy as a 7th round pick seems like great value if that ADP sticks for him. He hit .278/.359/.499 with 30 bombs last year, which really isn't all that far off from those guys going in the first and second rounds. He's 29, and last season was his first 30 homer season so the repeatability with the power numbers has to be a bit in question. That said, he's shown a 20 homer floor in his career and he's been an iron man (games played last 5 seasons: 155, 160, 159, 161, 158). He's a very steady and safe producer at third base, and may be being overlooked this year.
Carpenter - A significantly worse pick than Seager in my eyes, Carpenter does a bit of everything but not a ton of one thing. He's a top of the order bat, so he'll score you some more runs and he gets on base a ton, but he doesn't steal bases. He has mid to high 20 homer upside if he stays healthy, but so do most other third basemen that will go in the first ten rounds of your draft. I would rather have Seager or just wait a bit longer on third base at this point.
Frazier - He had quite a polarizing 2016 season in his first year with the White Sox, turning into an all-or-nothing hitter. He finished the season with 40 homers, but his batting average plummeted to a .225 mark. He got on base at a .302 clip, which is pretty hard to stomach if you don't have some high averages guys on your team already. The ZiPS projections have Frazier bringing his average up to the .240's, but it's at the expense of 10 home runs. He did swipe 15 bases and that wasn't a new part to his game, he stole 20 bags in 2014 and 13 in 2015, so he'll help you a bit there. If you feel good about being able to handle a low batting average, Frazier is a relatively cheap source of power.
Tier three: Adrian Beltre, Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, Evan Longoria
Beltre - How old will this guy be when he finally stops hitting .290+? The guy turned 37 last season and still posted a .300/.358/.521 line with 32 homers and 104 RBI. Pretty amazing. If he can repeat those numbers he is going to be an unbelievable value for where he's being drafted, it's just a matter of if you think he can do it at age 38.
Rendon & Ramirez - both are young guys that seem like they're going to be multi-category contributors without being really strong in any one category. ZiPS has Ramirez hitting .285 and Rendon .270 and gives them 10 and 17 homers respectively. There's always some upside with the younger guys, and the opportunity is going to be there for both of them in very strong lineups. You can certainly do a lot worse than these guys.
Bregman - One of the Astros top prospects came onto the scene last summer and made his highly anticipated debut, but then had just a terrible start to his career with a 2-for-38 stretch at the plate. He figured something out however, hitting .313/.354/.577 in his final 175 plate appearances. The sky is the limit for Bregman, and he could very well be in a top tier at third base some day, but as we see so often with young sluggers, it will probably take some time. There are going to be ups and downs for him this year, but at the end of the year he's probably going to post some decent numbers. The power upside is real and not many people would be surprised to see him post a 30 homer season this year.
Longoria - I don't know, it's just not that fun to pick Longoria anymore. The Rays lineup is pretty weak and he's firmly into his 30's now. He did have somewhat of a bounce back year in 2016 bringing his batting average up to .273, slugging .521 and hitting 36 homers. There's no real risk here, he's put up solid numbers every year of his career, and if he hit 30+ homers again he's going to be a great value in the mid rounds of the draft.
Tier four: Javier Baez, Maikel Franco, Justin Turner, Jake Lamb, Hernan Perez, Ryon Healy
These guys all have pretty similar ZiPS projections, instead of talking about them each individually I'll just show the projections:
Baez: 61 R, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 16 SB, .254/.303/.428
Franco: 75 R, 23 HR, 90 RBI, 2 SB, .270/.322/.463
Turner: 56 R, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB, .278/.343/.462
Lamb: 61 R, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .246/.323/.451
Perez: 50 R, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 21 SB, .266/.293/.400
Healy: 73 R, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 1 SB, .267/.305/.445
Most of these guys have upside, I'd say Baez, Franco, and Healy have the most, but I'm not particularly excited about any of these bats. There will probably be at least one breakout player and one or two duds from this group, but it's hard to tell. Great analysis, I know.
Tier five: The rest
Two names that could be very valuable from this group are Jung Ho Kang and Mike Moustakas. Moose is coming from back that leg injury and will probably be eased into playing time. ZiPS is giving him just 381 plate appearances this year, so if that turns out to be true he's not going to be worth owning for most of the season. Kang however is a different story. The good news is that we will probably have clarity on him by the time your league drafts. He's currently dealing with some legal trouble back home, and he could miss anywhere from no time to several months. My guess right now is that he misses a few weeks to a month, but plays the bulk of the season at third base with the Pirates. The guy has big power upside and showed signs of being a very valuable fantasy contributor when he's been on the field.
The rest of the guys I think you can just pass on and keep an eye on them throughout the year to see what happens. Moncada and Gurriel have some upside just because we haven't seen much of them, so in a deep league they're worth a flyer to see what happens, but for most leagues these guys aren't going to be super relevant.
Alright, so let's get to our final rankings:
It's a top-heavy position with 4 guys that are going to go in the first round or early second round this year. The top tier is pretty evident, but here's how I break down the position into tiers at this time:
Tier one: Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson
All of these guys are going to hit 30 homers if they stay healthy this season, and there really isn't a category they're going to hurt you in. Let's take a look at the ZiPS projections:Bryant: 104 R, 33 HR, 109 RBI, 12 SB, .274/.372/.512
Arenado: 85 R, 38 HR, 110 RBI, 2 SB, .291/.343/.567
Machado: 91 R, 32 HR, 86 RBI, 7 SB, .289/.349/.511
Donaldson: 98 R, 34 HR, 105 RBI, 6 SB, .276/.372/.525
Bryant has the highest upside, and Arenado is extremely safe for those numbers playing in Coors field, which is probably why that's the 1-2 in most drafts, but there's really not a lot of risk with any of these guys. You can't go wrong, and if one of is available into the second round they're going to be a good guy to nab to be the main cog in your offense.
Tier two: Kyle Seager, Matt Carpenter, Todd Frazier
After the top four are off the board, it seems like they'll be a pretty substantial amount of time before the next third baseman is drafted. There are a lot of similar options once we get to this point, so drafting a 3B from here is really going to be about what is available as a whole in your draft at the time.
Seager - This guy as a 7th round pick seems like great value if that ADP sticks for him. He hit .278/.359/.499 with 30 bombs last year, which really isn't all that far off from those guys going in the first and second rounds. He's 29, and last season was his first 30 homer season so the repeatability with the power numbers has to be a bit in question. That said, he's shown a 20 homer floor in his career and he's been an iron man (games played last 5 seasons: 155, 160, 159, 161, 158). He's a very steady and safe producer at third base, and may be being overlooked this year.
Carpenter - A significantly worse pick than Seager in my eyes, Carpenter does a bit of everything but not a ton of one thing. He's a top of the order bat, so he'll score you some more runs and he gets on base a ton, but he doesn't steal bases. He has mid to high 20 homer upside if he stays healthy, but so do most other third basemen that will go in the first ten rounds of your draft. I would rather have Seager or just wait a bit longer on third base at this point.
Frazier - He had quite a polarizing 2016 season in his first year with the White Sox, turning into an all-or-nothing hitter. He finished the season with 40 homers, but his batting average plummeted to a .225 mark. He got on base at a .302 clip, which is pretty hard to stomach if you don't have some high averages guys on your team already. The ZiPS projections have Frazier bringing his average up to the .240's, but it's at the expense of 10 home runs. He did swipe 15 bases and that wasn't a new part to his game, he stole 20 bags in 2014 and 13 in 2015, so he'll help you a bit there. If you feel good about being able to handle a low batting average, Frazier is a relatively cheap source of power.
Tier three: Adrian Beltre, Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, Evan Longoria
Beltre - How old will this guy be when he finally stops hitting .290+? The guy turned 37 last season and still posted a .300/.358/.521 line with 32 homers and 104 RBI. Pretty amazing. If he can repeat those numbers he is going to be an unbelievable value for where he's being drafted, it's just a matter of if you think he can do it at age 38.
Rendon & Ramirez - both are young guys that seem like they're going to be multi-category contributors without being really strong in any one category. ZiPS has Ramirez hitting .285 and Rendon .270 and gives them 10 and 17 homers respectively. There's always some upside with the younger guys, and the opportunity is going to be there for both of them in very strong lineups. You can certainly do a lot worse than these guys.
Bregman - One of the Astros top prospects came onto the scene last summer and made his highly anticipated debut, but then had just a terrible start to his career with a 2-for-38 stretch at the plate. He figured something out however, hitting .313/.354/.577 in his final 175 plate appearances. The sky is the limit for Bregman, and he could very well be in a top tier at third base some day, but as we see so often with young sluggers, it will probably take some time. There are going to be ups and downs for him this year, but at the end of the year he's probably going to post some decent numbers. The power upside is real and not many people would be surprised to see him post a 30 homer season this year.
Longoria - I don't know, it's just not that fun to pick Longoria anymore. The Rays lineup is pretty weak and he's firmly into his 30's now. He did have somewhat of a bounce back year in 2016 bringing his batting average up to .273, slugging .521 and hitting 36 homers. There's no real risk here, he's put up solid numbers every year of his career, and if he hit 30+ homers again he's going to be a great value in the mid rounds of the draft.
Tier four: Javier Baez, Maikel Franco, Justin Turner, Jake Lamb, Hernan Perez, Ryon Healy
These guys all have pretty similar ZiPS projections, instead of talking about them each individually I'll just show the projections:
Baez: 61 R, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 16 SB, .254/.303/.428
Franco: 75 R, 23 HR, 90 RBI, 2 SB, .270/.322/.463
Turner: 56 R, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB, .278/.343/.462
Lamb: 61 R, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .246/.323/.451
Perez: 50 R, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 21 SB, .266/.293/.400
Healy: 73 R, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 1 SB, .267/.305/.445
Most of these guys have upside, I'd say Baez, Franco, and Healy have the most, but I'm not particularly excited about any of these bats. There will probably be at least one breakout player and one or two duds from this group, but it's hard to tell. Great analysis, I know.
Tier five: The rest
Two names that could be very valuable from this group are Jung Ho Kang and Mike Moustakas. Moose is coming from back that leg injury and will probably be eased into playing time. ZiPS is giving him just 381 plate appearances this year, so if that turns out to be true he's not going to be worth owning for most of the season. Kang however is a different story. The good news is that we will probably have clarity on him by the time your league drafts. He's currently dealing with some legal trouble back home, and he could miss anywhere from no time to several months. My guess right now is that he misses a few weeks to a month, but plays the bulk of the season at third base with the Pirates. The guy has big power upside and showed signs of being a very valuable fantasy contributor when he's been on the field.
The rest of the guys I think you can just pass on and keep an eye on them throughout the year to see what happens. Moncada and Gurriel have some upside just because we haven't seen much of them, so in a deep league they're worth a flyer to see what happens, but for most leagues these guys aren't going to be super relevant.
Alright, so let's get to our final rankings:
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